NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Nick ChubbRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Browns vs. Steelers
Right now, Nick Chubb’s rushing yards prop is set at 84.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 84.5 (-110) after it opened @ 78.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Browns are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 2nd-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 54.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to accrue 17.3 carries in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among running backs.
Cons
- The Cleveland Browns will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved pass game effectiveness when facing better conditions this week.
- THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to be much less involved in his team’s running game this week (51.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (61.6% in games he has played).
- The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive ends rank as the 3rd-best collection of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.
- The Cleveland Browns have gone up against a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards
79
Rushing Yards
