Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe MixonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Jets vs. Bengals
Right now, Joe Mixon’s rushing yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 75.5 (-110) after it opened @ 71.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 9th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 44.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to earn 21.3 carries in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
- Joe Mixon has been a more important option in his offense’s running game this year (92.0% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (81.0%).
Cons
- Joe Mixon’s rushing effectiveness has tailed off this season, compiling a mere 2.90 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.09 rate last season.
- Joe Mixon has been less successful in picking up extra running yardage this season, accumulating 1.98 yards-after-contact compared to a 3.09 mark last season.
- The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
- The Cincinnati Bengals have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
91
Rushing Yards
91
Rushing Yards
