Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jacoby BrissettPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Browns vs. Steelers
Right now, Jacoby Brissett’s passing yards prop is set at 180.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 180.5 (-135) after it opened @ 199.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Cleveland Browns will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- THE BLITZ projects the Browns to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved pass game effectiveness when facing better conditions this week.
- The Cleveland Browns O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
- Jacoby Brissett’s throwing precision has improved this year, with his Completion% rising from 60.5% to 64.8%.
Cons
- The Browns are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 45.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Jacoby Brissett to attempt 25.4 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 2nd-least of all QBs.
- Jacoby Brissett has been among the bottom passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging 137.0 yards per game while checking in at the 13th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
151
Passing Yards
151
Passing Yards
