Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
James RobinsonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Chargers vs. Jaguars
Right now, James Robinson’s rushing yards prop is set at 54.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 54.5 (-115) after it opened @ 48.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 8th-quickest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 26.56 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects James Robinson to accrue 13.1 carries in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
- James Robinson has received 65.1% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, placing him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
- James Robinson has generated 55.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among RBs (86th percentile).
- The Los Angeles Chargers defense owns the 4th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, allowing 4.91 yards-per-carry.
Cons
- The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The Jaguars are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 37.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
57
Rushing Yards
57
Rushing Yards
