Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dalvin CookRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Vikings vs. Lions
Right now, Dalvin Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 78.5 yards (+105/-140).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 78.5 (-140) after it opened @ 80.5 (-125).
Pros
- The Vikings are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to accrue 16.4 carries in this game, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
- Dalvin Cook has been given 78.3% of his team’s rush attempts since the start of last season, ranking him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
- Dalvin Cook has generated 84.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the NFL among running backs (98th percentile).
- Opposing offenses have rushed for the 4th-most yards in the league (140 per game) against the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 7th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 38.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 9th-most sluggish paced defense in football (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.66 seconds per play.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
Projection
THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards
71
Rushing Yards
