Week 3 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Dalvin Cook from EV Insight

Dalvin CookRushing Yards

Right now, Dalvin Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 78.5 yards (+105/-140).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 78.5 (-140) after it opened @ 80.5 (-125).

Pros

The Vikings are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Dalvin Cook to accrue 16.4 carries in this game, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among RBs.
Dalvin Cook has been given 78.3% of his team’s rush attempts since the start of last season, ranking him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
Dalvin Cook has generated 84.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the NFL among running backs (98th percentile).
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 4th-most yards in the league (140 per game) against the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season.

Cons

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 7th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 38.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 9th-most sluggish paced defense in football (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.66 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at run-game blocking.

Projection

THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards