Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Breece HallRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Jets vs. Bengals
Right now, Breece Hall’s rushing yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-115/-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 10th-most run-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 39.5% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 119.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The New York Jets have risked going for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.
- The New York Jets have used some form of misdirection on 57.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (3rd-most in football), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.
Cons
- The New York Jets will be rolling out backup QB Joe Flacco in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Jets are a 5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- Opposing offenses have rushed for the 6th-least yards in the league (just 101 per game) against the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season.
- The Cincinnati Bengals defensive tackles grade out as the 9th-best collection of DTs in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
49
Rushing Yards
49
Rushing Yards
