Week 3 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Breece Hall from EV Insight

Breece HallRushing Yards

Right now, Breece Hall’s rushing yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-115/-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 10th-most run-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 39.5% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 119.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have risked going for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.
The New York Jets have used some form of misdirection on 57.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (3rd-most in football), which can keep the defense guessing and improve offensive efficiency.

Cons

The New York Jets will be rolling out backup QB Joe Flacco in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Jets are a 5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 6th-least yards in the league (just 101 per game) against the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season.
The Cincinnati Bengals defensive tackles grade out as the 9th-best collection of DTs in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
49
Rushing Yards