Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Lockett from EV Insight

Tyler LockettReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Lockett’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-101/-135).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 60.5 (-101) after it opened @ 56.5 (-115).

Pros

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Lockett to accrue 7.5 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 88th percentile among wide receivers.
Tyler Lockett has put up a monstrous 96.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
Tyler Lockett’s 64.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in football: 93rd percentile for WRs.
Tyler Lockett has been among the best pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 64.0 yards per game while ranking in the 93rd percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to run the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have called the least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 54.7 plays per game.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards