Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Pat Freiermuth from EV Insight

Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards

Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 31.5 (-110) after it opened @ 34.5 (-114).

Pros

The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 3rd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 6th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game versus the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 9th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Pat Freiermuth’s sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.8% to 47.6%.
Pat Freiermuth’s pass-catching effectiveness has declined this season, compiling a mere 1.72 yards-per-target vs a 7.69 mark last season.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has displayed good efficiency against TEs since the start of last season, yielding 6.97 yards-per-target to the position: the 8th-least in the NFL.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has excelled when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.60 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards