Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Vikings vs. Lions
Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-123/-111).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 41.5 (-123) after it opened @ 38.5 (-130).
Pros
- The Lions are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.55 seconds per snap.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 36.3 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to total 6.6 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 7th-least pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 58.7% pass rate.
- T.J. Hockenson’s sure-handedness have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.4% to 45.6%.
- T.J. Hockenson’s pass-catching efficiency has worsened this year, compiling just 4.11 yards-per-target compared to a 7.12 mark last year.
- T.J. Hockenson has been among the worst TEs in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a measly 3.46 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 13th percentile.
- The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (65.6%) to TEs since the start of last season (65.6%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards
43
Receiving Yards
