Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mo Alie-CoxReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Colts vs. Chiefs
Right now, Mo Alie-Cox’s receiving yards prop is set at 16.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 16.5 (-133) after it opened @ 17.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the NFL.
- Mo Alie-Cox has notched a whopping 26.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among tight ends.
- Mo Alie-Cox’s sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 57.5% to 62.4%.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 9th-least pass-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 59.8% pass rate.
- The forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Mo Alie-Cox’s pass-game efficiency has declined this season, notching a measly 6.95 yards-per-target vs a 8.22 figure last season.
- The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the quickest in football since the start of last season.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
21
Receiving Yards
21
Receiving Yards
