Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Justin Jefferson from EV Insight

Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards

Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 95.5 yards (-115/-115).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.8% pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Jefferson to earn 10.5 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
Justin Jefferson has put up a monstrous 126.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile among wideouts.

Cons

The Vikings are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 9th-most sluggish paced defense in football (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.66 seconds per play.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on just 4.5% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

Projection

THE BLITZ
106
Receiving Yards