Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Elijah MooreReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Jets vs. Bengals
Right now, Elijah Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 50.5 (-115) after it opened @ 50.5 (-110).
Pros
- The New York Jets will be rolling out backup QB Joe Flacco in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Jets are a 5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 119.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Elijah Moore to accrue 6.9 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 90th percentile among WRs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 60.5% pass rate.
- The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
- The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.65 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the least in the league.
- The Cincinnati Bengals cornerbacks project as the 3rd-best unit in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
- The New York Jets have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
51
Receiving Yards
51
Receiving Yards
