Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Diontae Johnson from EV Insight

Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 53.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-115).

Pros

The Steelers are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 63.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to accrue 9.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among WRs.
Diontae Johnson has been an integral part of his team’s pass game, earning a Target Share of 28.9% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 98th percentile among WRs.
Diontae Johnson has accumulated a colossal 92.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 92nd percentile among wide receivers.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 11th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Diontae Johnson’s receiving efficiency has declined this season, averaging just 5.88 yards-per-target compared to a 7.32 rate last season.
Diontae Johnson’s ability to pick up extra yardage has diminished this season, compiling just 3.08 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.16 mark last season.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has given up the 9th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.6%) to WRs since the start of last season (64.6%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
56
Receiving Yards