Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Diontae JohnsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Browns vs. Steelers
Right now, Diontae Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 53.5 (-110) after it opened @ 55.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Steelers are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 63.9 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Diontae Johnson to accrue 9.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 96th percentile among WRs.
- Diontae Johnson has been an integral part of his team’s pass game, earning a Target Share of 28.9% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 98th percentile among WRs.
- Diontae Johnson has accumulated a colossal 92.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 92nd percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 11th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Diontae Johnson’s receiving efficiency has declined this season, averaging just 5.88 yards-per-target compared to a 7.32 rate last season.
- Diontae Johnson’s ability to pick up extra yardage has diminished this season, compiling just 3.08 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.16 mark last season.
- The Cleveland Browns pass defense has given up the 9th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.6%) to WRs since the start of last season (64.6%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Receiving Yards
56
Receiving Yards
