Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
DeAndre HopkinsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Browns vs. Titans
Right now, DeAndre Hopkins’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 44.5 (-110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Tennessee Titans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tim Kelly, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Titans are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects DeAndre Hopkins to garner 7.5 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 83rd percentile among WRs.
- DeAndre Hopkins has been heavily involved in his team’s offense, garnering a Target Share of 29.5% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 99th percentile among wideouts.
- DeAndre Hopkins has been among the leading wide receivers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 77.0 yards per game while ranking in the 94th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 9th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Titans to run the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans have run the 4th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 54.6 plays per game.
- The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Receiving Yards
54
Receiving Yards
