Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Davante AdamsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Titans vs. Raiders
Right now, Davante Adams’s receiving yards prop is set at 82.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 82.5 (-110) after it opened @ 88.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.2% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Davante Adams to accrue 10.2 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among WRs.
- Davante Adams has been a key part of his team’s offense, garnering a Target Share of 33.0% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have played in the most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should lead to reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week’s game.
- The Las Vegas Raiders O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
- Davante Adams’s sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 75.3% to 54.3%.
- Davante Adams’s pass-game effectiveness has declined this season, averaging a measly 7.13 yards-per-target compared to a 9.79 rate last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
90
Receiving Yards
90
Receiving Yards
