Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Vikings vs. Lions
Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 71.5 (-110) after it opened @ 70.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Lions are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.55 seconds per snap.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 36.3 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to earn 10.0 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 7th-least pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 58.7% pass rate.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 78.6% to 69.9%.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown’s pass-catching effectiveness has declined this season, compiling a mere 7.20 yards-per-target compared to a 8.33 rate last season.
- The Detroit Lions O-line has given their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (8th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- The Detroit Lions have utilized play action on a measly 22.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (6th-least in football), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
81
Receiving Yards
81
Receiving Yards
