Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Ryan TannehillPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Titans vs. Raiders
Right now, Ryan Tannehill’s passing yards prop is set at 316.5 yards (+929/-5004).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 316.5 (+929) after it opened @ 205.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Tennessee Titans have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 64.8 plays per game.
- Ryan Tannehill has been among the most efficient quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 7.98 yards-per-target while grading out in the 88th percentile.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 5th-highest clip in football against the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season (72.7%).
- The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers project as the 7th-worst unit in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
- The Tennessee Titans have gone up against a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 5th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 55.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace on the slate this week, averaging 27.47 seconds per play accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Ryan Tannehill to attempt 30.1 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 7th-least of all quarterbacks.
- The Tennessee Titans O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
- Ryan Tannehill’s throwing accuracy has tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 67.5% to 59.5%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
216
Passing Yards
216
Passing Yards
