Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Matt RyanPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Colts vs. Chiefs
Right now, Matt Ryan’s passing yards prop is set at 249.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 249.5 (-110) after it opened @ 244.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Matt Ryan to attempt 34.9 passes this week, on average: the 10th-most of all quarterbacks.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the NFL.
- Matt Ryan has been among the top QBs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 239.0 yards per game while ranking in the 76th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 9th-least pass-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 59.8% pass rate.
- The forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Matt Ryan’s throwing accuracy has declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 66.8% to 59.0%.
- The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks grade out as the 9th-best collection of CBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
- The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the quickest in football since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
246
Passing Yards
246
Passing Yards
