Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin FieldsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Bears vs. Texans
Right now, Justin Fields’s passing yards prop is set at 171.5 yards (-109/-125).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 171.5 (-125) after it opened @ 182.5 (-115).
Pros
- Opposing QBs have thrown for the 9th-most yards in the league (247.0 per game) vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season.
- The Houston Texans pass defense has shown poor efficiency since the start of last season, conceding 8.42 yards-per-target: the 4th-most in the NFL.
- The Houston Texans safeties grade out as the worst unit in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
- The Chicago Bears O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
- The Chicago Bears have gone for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in football), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 44.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 7th-worst paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.26 seconds per play.
- The weather forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
151
Passing Yards
151
Passing Yards
