Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe FlaccoPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Jets vs. Bengals
Right now, Joe Flacco’s passing yards prop is set at 231.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 231.5 (-110) after it opened @ 236.5 (-115).
Pros
- The New York Jets will be rolling out backup QB Joe Flacco in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the league.
- Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 7th-most yards in the league (250.0 per game) versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 60.5% pass rate.
- The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
- Joe Flacco’s throwing precision has worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.5% to 62.5%.
- Joe Flacco’s throwing effectiveness has declined this season, averaging a measly 6.31 yards-per-target vs a 8.20 figure last season.
- The Cincinnati Bengals defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.99 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
214
Passing Yards
214
Passing Yards
