Week 3 Player Props: Passing Yards for Joe Flacco from EV Insight

Joe FlaccoPassing Yards

Right now, Joe Flacco’s passing yards prop is set at 231.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 231.5 (-110) after it opened @ 236.5 (-115).

Pros

The New York Jets will be rolling out backup QB Joe Flacco in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the league.
Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 7th-most yards in the league (250.0 per game) versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 60.5% pass rate.
The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Joe Flacco’s throwing precision has worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.5% to 62.5%.
Joe Flacco’s throwing effectiveness has declined this season, averaging a measly 6.31 yards-per-target vs a 8.20 figure last season.
The Cincinnati Bengals defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.99 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
214
Passing Yards