Week 3 Player Props: Passing Yards for Joe Burrow from EV Insight

Joe BurrowPassing Yards

Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 268.5 yards (-133/-103).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 268.5 (-133) after it opened @ 262.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have passed for the 6th-most yards in the NFL (253.0 per game) against the New York Jets defense since the start of last season.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest rate in the league vs. the New York Jets defense since the start of last season (74.5%).
The New York Jets pass defense has displayed poor efficiency since the start of last season, yielding 8.81 yards-per-target: the most in the NFL.
The New York Jets linebackers grade out as the worst collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Cons

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 7th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Joe Burrow has attempted a measly 28.6 passes per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 24th percentile among quarterbacks.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Joe Burrow’s throwing efficiency has diminished this season, notching a measly 6.91 yards-per-target vs a 8.12 figure last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
253
Passing Yards