Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe BurrowPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Jets vs. Bengals
Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 268.5 yards (-133/-103).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 268.5 (-133) after it opened @ 262.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have passed for the 6th-most yards in the NFL (253.0 per game) against the New York Jets defense since the start of last season.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest rate in the league vs. the New York Jets defense since the start of last season (74.5%).
- The New York Jets pass defense has displayed poor efficiency since the start of last season, yielding 8.81 yards-per-target: the most in the NFL.
- The New York Jets linebackers grade out as the worst collection of LBs in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 7th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Joe Burrow has attempted a measly 28.6 passes per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 24th percentile among quarterbacks.
- The Cincinnati Bengals O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
- Joe Burrow’s throwing efficiency has diminished this season, notching a measly 6.91 yards-per-target vs a 8.12 figure last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
253
Passing Yards
253
Passing Yards
