Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jared GoffPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Vikings vs. Lions
Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 253.5 yards (-129/-106).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 253.5 (-129) after it opened @ 243.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Lions are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.55 seconds per snap.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Jared Goff to attempt 35.8 passes in this game, on average: the 7th-most of all quarterbacks.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 36.3 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 7th-least pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 58.7% pass rate.
- Jared Goff’s passing accuracy has declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 66.2% to 55.3%.
- The Detroit Lions O-line has given their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (8th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- The Detroit Lions have utilized play action on a measly 22.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (6th-least in football), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
244
Passing Yards
244
Passing Yards
