Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derek CarrPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Titans vs. Raiders
Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 261.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 261.5 (-110) after it opened @ 271.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.2% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Derek Carr has attempted 36.5 throws per game since the start of last season, checking in at the 87th percentile among quarterbacks.
- Opposing teams have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the league.
- Derek Carr has been among the top QBs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 260.0 yards per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Las Vegas Raiders have played in the most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should lead to reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game efficiency when facing windier conditions in this week’s game.
- The Las Vegas Raiders O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
- Derek Carr’s passing accuracy has tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.2% to 60.5%.
- The Tennessee Titans safeties grade out as the 2nd-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
254
Passing Yards
254
Passing Yards
