Week 3 fantasy flames: Green to rediscover old form in Philly

Each week the Noise highlights under-started names who he believes are destined to torch the competition. To qualify, each player must be started in fewer than 60% of Yahoo! leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week (Scoring thresholds – QB: 19 fantasy points, RB: 12 points, WR: 11 points, TE: 10 points; 0.5 PPR). If you’re a member of TEAM HUEVOS, reveal your Week 3 Flames in the comments section below.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions

(29% started in Yahoo; DK DFS: $6,300)
Matchup: at ARZ
Vegas line/Total: ARZ -6, 53

Whenever players see Arizona on the schedule, heart rates immediately elevate. Kliff Kingbury’s Air Raid is a treadmill at top speed. Jump on it, and wheels spin rapidly. In the early season, the Desert Birds averaged 75 plays per game.

Talked up by this blathering dolt throughout August, the Lions passer hasn’t exactly roared. Through two games, Stafford has fallen outside the QB top-12 in contests against the Bears and Packers. In those two contests he’s netted an appreciable 9.0-yard average depth of target but stands at a disappointing QB26 in adjusted completion percentage. However, with Kenny Golladay likely to return from a hamstring injury, expect Stafford to relish the presumed breakneck pace.

The Cardinals, unblemished after scoring victories against San Francisco and Washington, conceded 7.3 pass yards per attempt, 241.0 pass yards per game and three total vertical strikes to Jimmy Garoppolo and Dwayne Haskins. Their efforts were commendable, though, to be fair, the competition was rather lackluster. The Niners featured a ragtag WR battery and the Football Team trotted out … well … Haskins.

Fearless forecast: 293 passing yards, 3 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, 8 rushing yards, 23.5 fantasy points

Kareem Hunt, RB, Cleveland Browns

(55%; $6,100)
Matchup: vs. WAS
Vegas line/Total: CLV -6.5, 44.5

Hunt gatherers vehement in the stance their guy is the superior talent in Cleveland needs to recognize. Nick Chubb is not only equally explosive, he’s the purer downhill runner, a runaway beer truck who flattens the opposition at a high YAC per attempt clip (4.47). His tag team partner is by no means a shell-less tortoise. He’s powerful between the tackles (5.14 YAC per attempt), smooth in the open field and an exceptional receiver. Bottom line is this, embrace both. It’s entirely plausible Chubb and Hunt finish as top-20 RBs. In Kevin Stefanski’s system, bludgeoning tacklers with a heavy 1-2 ground punch is the modus operandi.

Earlier this month, a matchup with Washington conjured erotic feelings. Most believed, even though Chase Young and Montez Sweat are enormously gifted edge rushers, the flexible interior would lead opposing backs to voraciously devour yards. Through two weeks, however, hole plungers Matt Ioannidis and Jonathan Allen have clogged lanes and wrapped backs. As a result, the Football Team has coughed up a mere 3.71 yards per carry to RBs. But Chubb and Hunt’s dude-displacing beefness present a not-yet-endured challenge.

Fearless forecast: 11 carries, 51 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 17 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 14.3 fantasy points

James Robinson, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

(36%; $5,400)
Matchup: vs. MIA
Vegas line/Total: JAX -2.5, 48

Arian Foster, Priest Holmes, Pierre Thomas — Robinson, two games in, has shown signs he could enter the pantheon of great undrafted running backs. No wonder Leonard Fournette was so expendable. The rookie displayed impressive explosiveness, contact balance, break-tackle brawn and versatility versus Indy and Tennessee. As OC Jay Gruden remarked before Week 2, he’s their bell cow, a rusher who should continue to yield rich milk. If his advanced analytics are a harbinger — 3.88 YAC per attempt, six total evaded tackles, top-15 in yards created — he could supply an entire dairy. In this Year of Fantasy Star Carnage, he’s the statistical sustenance we so desperately need.

On short rest, Robinson should be viewed as a RB2 in a Sunshine State battle against Miami. Through a pair of contests the Fins have conceded 133.0 total yards per game, one touchdown and 4.88 yards per carry to rushers. They’re not overly leaky, but the slow drip could turn into a deluge in Week 3. With Gardner Minshew playing at such a high level and the Jags offensive line generating appreciable push, Robinson is positioned to take advantage of loosened fronts, especially with Miami’s top DB, Byron Jones, sidelined. On another robust 15-20 touches, the overlooked rookie should guide backers into the black.

Fearless forecast: 18 carries, 78 rushing yards, 2 receptions, 19 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 16.7 fantasy points

A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

(38%; $6,000)
Matchup: at PHI
Vegas line/Total: PHI -6.5, 44.5

You’re probably thinking you, and not Roy Jones Jr., would rather square off against Mike Tyson, even at his advanced age, than remotely entertain trotting out a wide receiver with a chuckle-worthy 36.3% catch percentage. Pin the blame on Green or Joe Burrow — both are deserving — but the tandem is struggling to establish chemistry. Still in the dating phase, they will eventually evolve their relationship. The force feedings (22 targets) and Green’s 46.0 air yards percentage through two games imply love letters will soon exchange.

Ironing out the wrinkles, this is the week Green and Burrow consummate their slow brewing on-field romance. Philadelphia’s strength is erecting trench walls with Fletcher Cox and Friends. Through two games, however, they’ve surrendered 3.71 yards per carry to the RB position. Their stymieness should increase against a forgiving Cincinnati front. As a result, Burrow, off an exhaustive 61 pass attempts, will again register a high pitch count. The Eagles, against Dwayne Haskins and Jared Goff, yielded 7.7 pass yards per attempt and the second-most total air yards (776) of any NFL team. Darius Slay is no stiff (70.4 passer rating allowed), but assuming he lures another double-digit looks, Green will live up to his last name and deliver a money return.

Fearless forecast: 6 receptions, 72 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 16.2 fantasy points

Corey Davis, WR, Tennessee Titans

(16%; $5,200)
Matchup: at MIN
Vegas line/Total: TEN -1.5, 45.5

When Davis, fresh off a spectacular career at Western Michigan, entered the league four years ago, bountiful superlatives were applied — super route runner, exceptional adjustments, a dynamic future franchise cornerstone. Whether via filmwork, physical testing or number crunching, he had the appearance of a can’t-miss prospect. Then he was slapped upside the head by the hand of suckiness. Over his first four seasons, WR27, in 2018, was his finest fantasy finish. The next Kevin White? He was racing down toward that level of obscurity.

With consecutive double-figure fantasy performances under the belt, the late bloomer’s DeVante Parker-like breakout should roll on against winless Minnesota. The Vikings wielded a dull sword Weeks 1-2. Matching wits against Green Bay and Indy, they gave up 8.4 pass yards per attempt and 523 total air yards, indicators which project additional bombardments to come. Expected to exchange greetings most often with CB Holton Hill (125.4 passer rating, 2.36 yards/snap allowed), CD won’t scratch. Confidently deploy him at WR3 or the flex in 12-team leagues.

Fearless forecast: 5 receptions, 66 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 15.1 fantasy points

Shocker special (under 10% started)

Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers

(2%; $5,900)
Matchup: vs. CAR
Vegas line/Total: LAC -7, 43.5

In a bizarre twist no one could’ve predicted in the moments leading up to L.A.’s clash with KC, Tyrod Taylor improbably injured his chest during warmups (punctured lung from an injection … Cue the scene from "Pulp Fiction."), pressing the very green Herbert into action. Most believed the former Oregon Duck, selected No. 5 overall in April’s draft, was destined to become foie gras. The opposite, however, proved true. Displaying a howitzer arm, terrific command and excellent mobility, he stepped in and churned out an eye-opening 311 passing yards with a touchdown. On the week he checked in at QB19 in adjusted completion percentage, adding 8.5 total air yards and 9.4 yards per attempt.

Anthony Lynn’s strange comment Taylor will be the starter once healthy is senseless. It ranks up there with choosing to dine at the Olive Garden over a Michelin-rated Italian restaurant. The man, who you spent a top-five overall pick on in April, just matched Patrick Mahomes punch for punch. He’s the future face of the franchise and may already be light years ahead of Taylor in … everything.

If logic seeps into Lynn’s cranium and Herbert is given the start, he’s worth debating as a borderline top-15 option. His puzzle, cracking Carolina, is a simple one to solve. The Panthers have allowed 7.1 pass yards per attempt and 572 total air yards this season. Do the right thing, Anthony.

Fearless forecast: 264 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 1 interceptions, 15 rushing yards, 19.1 fantasy points

Bonus flames (Under 60% started)

RB: D'Andre Swift, DET (Line: ARZ -6; DK: $5,000) — Adrian Peterson and Frank Gore may still be collecting NFL paychecks when the alien invasion begins in 2356, but in the near-term, the former is most likely to be replaced. Unbeknownst to some, Swift is the Lions’ current RB leader in snap share. Between-the-tackles grinds are rather infrequent (8 carries for 20 yards WKs 1-2), but if his five receptions for 60 yards last week versus Green Bay are a harbinger, a consistent presence in the pass game, particularly inside the red zone, is on the docket. In what could be a shootout affair with an Arizona defense which has allowed 10 receptions for 159 yards and two scores to RBs, the former Georgia Bulldog may pack a vicious bite for PPR purposes. (FF: 5-28-0, 5-55-1, 14.3 fantasy points)

RB: Mike Davis, CAR (Line: LAC -7; DK: $5,100) — Losing consensus No. 1 and No. 2 picks Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley to significant injuries is a swift, parts-shattering kick to the crotch, a catastrophic outcome that can only be blamed on this hellish year. If you smashed the piggy bank and acquired the journeyman, promptly plug him in. Draftnik fav Reggie Bonnafon will be mixed in, but Davis, who reeled in all eight targets last week tallying 74 yards, is Matt Rhule’s preferred choice to command the workload lion’s share. The veteran isn’t particularly special, but did exhibit suitable after-contact abilities with Seattle in 2018 — 335 of his 534 ground yards gained came after initial contact. The Chargers stamp out the run effectively — they gave up 3.97 yards per carry to RBs Weeks 1-2 — but Davis’ projected volume is attractive.

WR: T.Y. Hilton, IND (Line: IND -9.5; DK: $5,600) — More a roadside Days Inn with unmentionable stains ingrained on the bedspread, Hilton — expected to be the centerpiece of Frank Reich’s passing attack — has accomplished next to nothing over the first two weeks. Comprising only 15.4% of the team’s target share, the veteran grabbed seven passes for 81 yards and zero scores in favorable matchups versus Jacksonville and Minnesota. However, there’s hope for a rebound. His 38.9% team air yards percentage ranks top-10 at the position, a positive sign an explosive performance is in the forecast. With the comically inept Jets coming to town, this could be the week Hilton resembles the trustworthy WR2 of old. Jets CBs Pierre Desir and Blessuan Austin have allowed a combined 97.1 passer rating to their assignments. (FF: 5-61-1, 14.6 fantasy points)

WR: Brandin Cooks, Hou (Line: PIT -5.5; DK: $5,200) — Operating with more freedom after he was limited Week 1 in Kansas City, Cooks resembled the 1,200-yard receiver from two years ago last Sunday against a normally unaccommodating Baltimore secondary. Targeted a team-high eight times, he grabbed five passes for 95 yards, his highest single-game yardage output since Week 3 last season. His 15.0 average targeted air yards certainly invigorated the senses. His primary Week 3 assignment, Joe Haden, has given up a lowly 35.2 passer rating and 0.81 yards per snap thus far, but if Will Fuller is inactive (hammy) bank on a sizable target share. For the contrarians in attendance, Cooks is the spice you’re looking for. (FF: 5-67-1, 15.2 fantasy points)

TE: Dalton Schultz, DAL (Line: SEA -4.5; DK: $4,500) — A 2% chance, or odds equivalent to this unathletic scribe outsprinting a partially incapacitated Tom Brady in a 40-yard dash. OK, maybe a 3% chance. That’s how miniscule Dallas’ win chances were at point last week against Atlanta, yet they improbably prevailed. Overshadowed by the comeback, Schultz brilliantly filled the void left by injured starter Blake Jarwin. On 10 targets, he caught nine passes for 89 yards and a touchdown, netting a 5.33 YAC per reception. In a contest with plenty of potential fireworks (55.5 total), the elevated backup is a viable TE1 in 12-team leagues. (FF: 4-47-1, 12.7 fantasy points)

Rapid-fire flame 1: Michael Gallup, DAL, WR (Line: SEA -4.5; DK: $5,500) — Giddy up. Some are writing Gallup off, but it’s a massive mistake. He’s No. 2 in air yards targeted (WR2) and has just missed on a pair of explosive chunk plays. He shreds Quinton Dunbar (2.00 yds/snap allowed) and a Seattle secondary which has relinquished 8.6 pass yards per attempt. (FF: 4-84-1, 16.4 fantasy points)

Rapid-fire flame 2: Joshua Kelley, LAC, RB (Line: LAC -7; DK: $5,000) — On close to 40% of the opportunity share, the rookie out of UCLA is strumming quite the second fiddle. Over 37 touches he’s notched 173 combined yards and a score. His advanced analytics are mediocre (2.71 YAC/att, 13.5% missed tackle percentage), but it’s impossible to overlook his 22.4% red-zone carry rate. Blessed with a matchup against Carolina’s “Hello Kitties” D (4.9 ypc allowed), he’s an employable RB2. (FF: 15-63-1, 1-12-0, 14.0 fantasy points)