MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Deebo SamuelReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 22
Chiefs vs. 49ers
Right now, Deebo Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (+100/-124).
The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (+100) after it opened @ 56.5 (-114).
Pros
- Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the model to see just 127.5 offensive plays called: the fewest among all games this week.
- The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may drop.
- The predictive model expects Deebo Samuel to garner 7.9 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 91st percentile among wide receivers.
- Deebo Samuel has notched far more air yards this season (40.0 per game) than he did last season (32.0 per game).
- Deebo Samuel grades out as one of the best wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 59.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 83rd percentile.
Cons
- The projections expect the 49ers as the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 58.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- The 49ers have called the fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a measly 54.1 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 25.8 pass attempts per game against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
- Deebo Samuel’s 75.9% Route% this season marks a noteworthy decrease in his passing offense utilization over last season’s 86.8% rate.
- In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the significance it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the 49ers grades out as the worst in football this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
70
Receiving Yards
70
Receiving Yards
