Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops! We managed to survive a messy Monday slate and even win a little money to get us rolling into Tuesday’s TNT Tuesday action. We have five games with a few interesting matchups surrounded by a few games ripe with player availability and schedule fatigue concerns. It’s a rich tapestry of what the NBA regular season can be.
Which of two teams playing their second night of a back-to-back might be less fatigued? What’s the plan if key players A, B, and/or C are playing or not? How will teams using new players build lineups that make sense. Let’s dive into each game, try to answer those questions, and figure out which wagers are worthy of our money.
NBA Best Bets for Tuesday
Toronto Raptors at Chicago Bulls
Current Line – Bulls -6, 226.5
My Projection – Bulls 116, Raptors 107
Key Injuries – Zach LaVine and RJ Barrett are out. Immanuel Quickley is doubtful.
The Raptors are missing a lot of talent from their roster. They traded away Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby and Precious Achiuwa. Siakam and Anunoby were two of the best three players on the team and Achiuwa was a key contributor off the bench. They did get Bruce Brown, RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley as part of those trades, but two of those three players are likely not playing. The Raptors have been starting Thaddeus Young and relying on Jordan Nwora and Jontay Porter to play big minutes. With all due respect to them, they are not players you want on the floor for 25-plus minutes per game. In fact, I just learned who Jontay Porter was this morning and kept typing “Jayden Porter” while writing this. I love the potential of Scottie Barnes leading a small ball team of athletic players with shooting, but we are at least a full offseason away from realizing that potential.
The Bulls have more talent at almost every position up and down their roster and get to play in front of their home crowd where they have played their best basketball. Zach LaVine won’t on the floor for Chicago tonight, but as I’ve written here before, that is probably better for the Bulls. Although a great scorer, LaVine generally holds onto the ball and is not a good defender. Without him, Coby White can play next to a point guard and Alex Caruso is pulled into the starting lineup. Caruso brings great shooting and great defense. I expect LaVine to find success in a better situation, but the pieces fall into place better without him on this roster. I make the Bulls 9 point favorites and love this matchup for them. Chicago doesn’t play down to their competition and won’t face the superstar deficit they have against other opponents. I’ll lay 6 points with the Bulls.
Bet
Chicago Bulls -6 (-115, BetParx)
Not For Noops
Games I’m not betting and why I’m not betting them.
Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics -7.5, 245.5
This should be a great spot to bet on Indiana. The Celtics played a tough game Monday night, and a fast-paced team like the Pacers is a nightmare matchup on the second night of a back-to-back when legs are tired. Unfortunately, we don’t know which Pacers are playing and for how long they will play. Tyrese Haliburton is listed as questionable, but Rick Carlisle has indicated he will play albeit in a limited capacity. Myles Turner and Jalen Smith are also listed as questionable, and they are the only two good centers on the Indiana roster. Without either we’ll a Pascal Siakam and Obi Toppin used as small ball centers or maybe even some serious Isaiah Jackson minutes. That’s a terrible situation against a Celtics team that might have Kristaps Porzingis, since he didn’t play Monday. If the Pacers have both Turner and Smith I will likely bet them at +7 or better. I’ll add that bet to the FTN Bets Discord in the #nba-plays channel.
Los Angeles Lakers at Atlanta Hawks -4.5, 247.5
The Lakers lost to the Rockets by 16 points in Houston. LeBron James played 37 minutes and is in line to play again in Atlanta. We’re not sure if Anthony Davis is playing, he is a true game-time decision. Los Angeles, a veteran team, is 1-6 against the spread on the second night of back-to-backs. The Hawks continue their season of losing bettors money. They are still the worst team against the spread at home, on the road, as a favorite, and as an underdog. So, given those two choices, which sounds worthy of wager? The answer should be neither. Maybe this is the night Atlanta finally starts a streak of covers. Maybe LeBron gives an incredible performance. Maybe it’s just a complete mess of a game like it seems it should. Let’s be sure to definitely pass on betting this game.
Utah Jazz at New York Knicks -4.5, 229
Both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back. The Jazz are also playing the last game of their six-game road trip, but Utah rested their stars late in Monday’s blowout loss to the Brooklyn Nets. That means they might not be as fatigued as expected and given their love of shooting three-pointers can beat any team on any night if those shots are falling. The Knicks, as they always do, pushed their starters hard Monday night and could be even more fatigued than expected. I make this New York -6, which is a small edge on the Knicks, but I don’t think my model is properly accounting for the minutes played Monday night disparity and for the potential of a big three-point shooting night for the Jazz. I make the total 232 which would be a play to the over, but this total opened at 235 and someone has been betting the under all day like they know the score. Maybe OG Anunoby returns and carries the Knicks defense. I’m happy to pass on this game.
Philadelphia 76ers at Golden State Warriors -3.5, 235.5
The status of Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris is unknown but all three are at risk to miss this game. How could we possibly bet this game without knowing who is playing? Embiid needs to play games to be eligible to win the MVP award and didn’t play last night so he should be rested. If he can play, the 76ers should be favored. Maxey has missed a few games in a row and I’d guess he is not likely to play. If somehow Embiid and Maxey can play the 76ers should be favored by at least two baskets. The Warriors are currently favored by 3.5 points which is the market telling us Embiid and Maxey are likely not playing. Golden State is not yet playing good basketball, but they are good enough to beat Philadelphia without their stars. Maybe there is a bet to be made just before tip-off when we’re sure of each player’s status, but we shouldn’t make any bets now. I’ll put any plays I make in this game in the FTN Bets Discord.
