Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 21
49ers vs. Lions
Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 86.5 yards (-125/-109).
The public has bet the OVER up to 86.5 (-125) after it opened @ 86.5 (-117).
Pros
- With a 7.5-point advantage, the 49ers are overwhelmingly favored in this week’s contest, suggesting much more of a focus on rushing than their usual approach.
- The predictive model expects Christian McCaffrey to garner 19.4 carries in this game, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to RBs.
- Christian McCaffrey has run for a lot more adjusted yards per game (95.0) this year than he did last year (68.0).
- Christian McCaffrey’s 5.6 adjusted yards per carry this year marks a remarkable growth in his rushing ability over last year’s 4.8 figure.
- Christian McCaffrey profiles as one of the best RBs in football at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging an impressive 3.47 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 95th percentile.
Cons
- Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the 49ers are anticipated by the predictive model to run just 63.1 plays on offense in this game: the fewest among all teams this week.
Projection
THE BLITZ
95
Rushing Yards
95
Rushing Yards
