Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
I’m not going to lie — the picks in the article haven’t been the best lately. Some of it has been bad luck and one- or two-bucket losses, and some of it has been bad reads, which can happen as well. The college basketball season is a long one, so there will always be peaks and valleys. Feel free to follow along or fade, but here are Wednesday’s selections.
All odds are per DraftKings Sportsbook.
Murray State at Bradley
7 p.m. ET
Bradley -8.5
Plain and simple, Bradley smashes teams at home, and I don’t think Wednesday will be much different. They’ve played four home games in conference so far and have had halftime leads of 10, 15 and 14, with the fourth game being against Indiana State and them losing at half. Revenge is on the mind of the Braves as they lost 79-72 at Murray State Nov. 29 in a game that saw their usually strong defense give up 79 points. The reason why I’m attacking the first half here is because they travel to Indiana State Saturday, so if the lead gets big enough in the second half then they may start pulling guys to get ready for the second round with the Sycamores. Last year, Bradley lost at Murray State in their first meeting and then beat them 83-48 the second time.
The Pick
Bradley -4.5 (1H)
South Florida at Temple
7 p.m. ET
South Florida -1.5
The Owls are really bad offensively. They are shooting 44% from two-point land as a team and 29.4% from long range, which are both in the 300s. This team has not scored over 70 points since Dec. 16 when they put up 78 at VCU. South Florida isn’t exactly the best defensive team in the country, but they’ve done well defending the three and preventing offensive rebounds in conference play. These two played earlier this month and USF won 76-68 at home. There isn’t exactly much of a home court advantage for the Owls and the offense just doesn’t scare me outside of Hysier Miller.
The Pick
Temple under 72.5 points (-115)
Winthrop at Charleston Southern
7 p.m. ET
Winthrop -6.5
This game seems like an over to me because of several key edges. Winthrop is No. 1 in FTA/FGA, which means they have the best FT rate in America. On the road in conference, the team has played games with scores of 82-80, 81-71 and 79-74. They are taking a ton of threes with 44.7% of their shots in Big South play being from long range. That plays nicely into the Buccaneers who struggle defending the three at times and have a propensity for fouling on defense. Offensively, Charleston Southern is shooting 40.2% from long range in conference and 82.6% from the FT line. Last year these two played games with scores of 76-64 and 75-67.
The Pick
Over 142.5
