Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
George KittleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 21
49ers vs. Lions
Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-130/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-130) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).
Pros
- The predictive model expects George Kittle to garner 6.2 targets in this week’s game, on balance, placing him in the 80th percentile among TEs.
- George Kittle has notched substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (61.0) this year than he did last year (49.0).
- George Kittle’s 10.8 adjusted yards per target this season signifies a noteable improvement in his receiving ability over last season’s 9.2 rate.
- With an exceptional 6.78 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (96th percentile) this year, George Kittle ranks as one of the leading pass-game TEs in the league in picking up extra yardage.
Cons
- With a 7.5-point advantage, the 49ers are overwhelmingly favored in this week’s contest, suggesting much more of a focus on rushing than their usual approach.
- The predictive model expects the 49ers to be the 2nd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the 49ers are anticipated by the predictive model to run just 63.1 plays on offense in this game: the fewest among all teams this week.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards
60
Receiving Yards
