Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
James CookRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 20
Bills vs. Chiefs
Right now, James Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see 131.7 plays on offense run: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.
- In this week’s game, James Cook is forecasted by the predictive model to rank in the 77th percentile when it comes to RBs with 15.6 carries.
- After accounting for 19.1% of his offense’s rushing play calls last year, James Cook has had a larger role in the rushing attack this year, currently sitting at 50.4%.
- James Cook has run for substantially more adjusted yards per game (67.0) this year than he did last year (32.0).
- As it relates to the safeties’ role in run defense, Kansas City’s collection of safeties has been very bad this year, ranking as the 5th-worst in football. in football.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Bills to be the 9th-least run-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 36.8% run rate.
- When it comes to run support (and the ramifications it has on all run game statistics), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 6th-worst in football last year.
- James Cook’s 4.7 adjusted yards per carry this year conveys a noteworthy regression in his running ability over last year’s 5.8 rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
72
Rushing Yards
72
Rushing Yards
