Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Isiah PachecoRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 20
Bills vs. Chiefs
Right now, Isiah Pacheco’s rushing yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- In this contest, Isiah Pacheco is predicted by the projection model to place in the 88th percentile when it comes to running backs with 16.6 carries.
- Isiah Pacheco has been a much bigger part of his offense’s rushing attack this season (65.2% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (40.9%).
- When it comes to executing run-blocking assignments (and the influence it has on all ground game metrics), the offensive line of the Chiefs ranks as the best in the league last year.
- Isiah Pacheco’s 72.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season represents a meaningful boost in his rushing prowess over last season’s 50.0 figure.
- This year, the tough Buffalo Bills run defense has surrendered a measly 4.63 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing ground game: the 25th-best rate in the NFL.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the least run-focused offense among all teams this week with a 36.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to run the 3rd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 65.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Rushing Yards
76
Rushing Yards
