Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 20
49ers vs. Packers
Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 95.5 yards (-123/-111).
The public has bet the OVER up to 95.5 (-123) after it opened @ 89.5 (-117).
Pros
- With a 10-point advantage, the 49ers are heavily favored this week, indicating much more of an emphasis on running than their normal approach.
- The projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to be the 2nd-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 47.6% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
- Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to have just 126.5 offensive plays run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.
- Christian McCaffrey has run for substantially more adjusted yards per game (95.0) this season than he did last season (68.0).
- Opposing teams have run for the most adjusted yards in the NFL (128 per game) against the Green Bay Packers defense this year.
Cons
- The 49ers have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 53.5 plays per game.
- Christian McCaffrey’s 82.0% snap rate this year reflects a substantial growth in his offensive usage over last year’s 71.5% figure.
Projection
THE BLITZ
94
Rushing Yards
94
Rushing Yards
