Week 20 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Travis Kelce

Travis KelceReceiving Yards

Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 62.5 yards (-127/-108).

The public has bet the OVER up to 62.5 (-127) after it opened @ 61.5 (-119).

Pros

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chiefs to pass on 63.6% of their plays: the greatest clip among all teams this week.
The model projects Travis Kelce to accumulate 9.3 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Travis Kelce slots into the 99th percentile for TE WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) with an astounding 50.7 mark this year.
The Kansas City O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all pass attack stats across the board.
Travis Kelce’s receiving reliability have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 74.6% to 79.8%.

Cons

Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to run the 3rd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 65.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 30.8 per game) this year.
Travis Kelce has compiled far fewer air yards this year (54.0 per game) than he did last year (67.0 per game).
Travis Kelce has compiled significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (69.0) this year than he did last year (80.0).
This year, the daunting Buffalo Bills pass defense has surrendered the 7th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing TEs: a measly 4.2 YAC.

Projection

THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards