Week 20 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Stefon Diggs

Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards

Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-104/-131).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 60.5 (-131) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).

Pros

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see 131.7 plays on offense run: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.
In this contest, Stefon Diggs is predicted by the model to position himself in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers with 9.9 targets.
With a high 29.3% Target Rate (94th percentile) this year, Stefon Diggs places among the WRs with the most usage in the league.
Stefon Diggs has put up a whopping 103.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

Cons

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Buffalo Bills to pass on 54.8% of their plays: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 28.7 per game) this year.
Stefon Diggs has put up quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (71.0) this year than he did last year (90.0).
Stefon Diggs’s sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 72.7% to 67.4%.
Stefon Diggs’s 7.6 adjusted yards per target this year shows a meaningful drop-off in his receiving ability over last year’s 9.6 rate.

Projection

THE BLITZ
73
Receiving Yards