NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 20
Bills vs. Chiefs
Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-104/-131).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 60.5 (-131) after it opened @ 66.5 (-115).
Pros
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see 131.7 plays on offense run: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.
- In this contest, Stefon Diggs is predicted by the model to position himself in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers with 9.9 targets.
- With a high 29.3% Target Rate (94th percentile) this year, Stefon Diggs places among the WRs with the most usage in the league.
- Stefon Diggs has put up a whopping 103.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
- The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Cons
- Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Buffalo Bills to pass on 54.8% of their plays: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
- Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 28.7 per game) this year.
- Stefon Diggs has put up quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (71.0) this year than he did last year (90.0).
- Stefon Diggs’s sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 72.7% to 67.4%.
- Stefon Diggs’s 7.6 adjusted yards per target this year shows a meaningful drop-off in his receiving ability over last year’s 9.6 rate.
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Receiving Yards
73
Receiving Yards
