Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Nico CollinsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 20
Ravens vs. Texans
Right now, Nico Collins’s receiving yards prop is set at 78.5 yards (-133/-103).
The public has bet the OVER up to 78.5 (-133) after it opened @ 78.5 (-119).
Pros
- This week’s line suggests an extreme passing game script for the Texans, who are massive -9.5-point underdogs.
- Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Houston Texans are forecasted by the projection model to call 67.9 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-highest number among all teams this week.
- Opposing teams have averaged 38.2 pass attempts per game versus the Ravens defense this year: most in the league.
- The model projects Nico Collins to earn 10.4 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.
- Nico Collins has notched many more adjusted receiving yards per game (81.0) this year than he did last year (48.0).
Cons
- This year, the fierce Ravens defense has surrendered a puny 59.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing WRs: the 5th-lowest rate in the NFL.
- The Ravens pass defense has shown good efficiency against WRs this year, allowing 6.52 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the fewest in the league.
- The Ravens safeties profile as the best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
81
Receiving Yards
81
Receiving Yards
