Week 20 Player Props: Passing Yards for Patrick Mahomes

Patrick MahomesPassing Yards

Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 258.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 258.5 (-115) after it opened @ 260.5 (-115).

Pros

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chiefs to pass on 63.6% of their plays: the greatest clip among all teams this week.
In this week’s game, Patrick Mahomes is projected by the projection model to wind up with the most pass attempts among all QBs with 39.2.
The Kansas City O-line grades out as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all pass attack stats across the board.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest level in football versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year (74.1% Adjusted Completion%).

Cons

Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to run the 3rd-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 65.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 30.8 per game) this year.
Patrick Mahomes’s 277.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season signifies a significant decrease in his passing ability over last season’s 325.0 figure.
Patrick Mahomes’s 7.37 adjusted yards-per-target this year represents a noteworthy drop-off in his throwing effectiveness over last year’s 8.5% rate.
This year, the formidable Buffalo Bills defense has conceded the 2nd-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to the opposing side: a puny 4.1 YAC.

Projection

THE BLITZ
267
Passing Yards