Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Baker MayfieldPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 20
Lions vs. Buccaneers
Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 270.5 yards (-129/-106).
The public has bet the OVER up to 270.5 (-129) after it opened @ 238.5 (-117).
Pros
- A passing game script is implied by the Buccaneers being a -6.5-point underdog in this week’s game.
- The passing games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
- Baker Mayfield’s 235.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year conveys a significant boost in his passing talent over last year’s 63.0 figure.
- Baker Mayfield’s 7.02 adjusted yards-per-target this year represents a remarkable boost in his passing efficiency over last year’s 5.9% figure.
- The Lions pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency this year, yielding 8.08 adjusted yards-per-target: the most in football.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Buccaneers to run the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 7th-lowest level in the NFL vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year (66.6% Adjusted Completion%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
284
Passing Yards
284
Passing Yards
