Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Nick ChubbRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Browns vs. Jets
Right now, Nick Chubb’s rushing yards prop is set at 80.5 yards (-135/-101).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 80.5 (-101) after it opened @ 81.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Browns are a 6-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns as the 2nd-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Nick Chubb to total 17.2 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
- Nick Chubb has earned 56.4% of his offense’s carries this year, ranking in the 87th percentile among RBs.
- The Cleveland Browns offensive line profiles as the best in football since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
Cons
- The Cleveland Browns will be rolling out backup QB Jacoby Brissett in this game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 122.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Cleveland Browns have played in the 2nd-most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which should lead to increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved pass game performance when facing better conditions this week.
- The Cleveland Browns have been faced with a stacked the box on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
78
Rushing Yards
78
Rushing Yards
