Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Michael CarterRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Browns vs. Jets
Right now, Michael Carter’s rushing yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 39.5 (-110) after it opened @ 42.5 (-115).
Pros
- Michael Carter has garnered 50.2% of his team’s rush attempts since the start of last season, ranking him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
- Michael Carter has been among the leading RBs in football at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging an impressive 3.36 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while checking in at the 87th percentile.
- The Cleveland Browns defensive tackles rank as the 7th-worst group of DTs in football since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
- The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The New York Jets have risked going for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
Cons
- The Jets are a 6-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 9th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 37.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 7th-least total plays among all teams this week with 60.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The New York Jets have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 61.4 plays per game.
- The Cleveland Browns defense has had the 8th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, yielding just 4.29 yards-per-carry.
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Rushing Yards
48
Rushing Yards
