Week 2 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Justice Hill from EV Insight

Justice HillRushing Yards

Right now, Justice Hill’s rushing yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 25.5 (-110) after it opened @ 24.5 (-110).

Pros

The Ravens rank as the 7th-most run-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 44.9% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Justice Hill to be a more integral piece of his offense’s run game this week (32.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (11.9% in games he has played).
Justice Hill has been among the best RBs in the NFL at picking up extra running yardage, averaging an impressive 3.12 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 80th percentile.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers rank as the worst unit in the league since the start of last season with their run defense.

Cons

The Baltimore Ravens will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Ravens are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.22 seconds per play.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing squads have run for the 6th-least yards in football (just 106 per game) versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
34
Rushing Yards