Week 2 Player Props: Rushing Yards for D'Andre Swift from EV Insight

D’Andre SwiftRushing Yards

Right now, D’Andre Swift’s rushing yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 45.5 (-110) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 6th-most run-heavy team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 42.4% run rate.
The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 9th-quickest pace in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season, averaging 25.27 seconds per play.
D’Andre Swift has grinded out 50.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the NFL among RBs (82nd percentile).
The Detroit Lions have risked going for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Cons

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects D’Andre Swift to be much less involved in his team’s rushing attack this week (30.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (50.8% in games he has played).
The Washington Commanders defensive ends profile as the 5th-best DE corps in the league since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

Projection

THE BLITZ
36
Rushing Yards