Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Robert WoodsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Bills vs. Titans
Right now, Robert Woods’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 38.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Titans are a heavy 10-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- The Tennessee Titans have called the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 65.3 plays per game.
- Robert Woods has run a route on 91.0% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 94th percentile among WRs.
- THE BLITZ projects Robert Woods to earn 6.7 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 78th percentile among wideouts.
- Robert Woods has been among the top wide receivers in the game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 62.0 yards per game while ranking in the 91st percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 2nd-least pass-centric team in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 56.9% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game versus the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
- The Tennessee Titans offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards
47
Receiving Yards
