Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Clyde Edwards-HelaireRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Chiefs vs. Chargers
Right now, Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s rushing yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (+120/-145).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 46.5 (+120) after it opened @ 45.5 (-125).
Pros
- The Chiefs are a 4-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to call the 8th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Kansas City Chiefs O-line grades out as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
- The Los Angeles Chargers defensive ends project as the 6th-worst collection of DEs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 3rd-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 36.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have played in the 2nd-most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in increased pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense effectiveness when facing better conditions this week.
- THE BLITZ projects Clyde Edwards-Helaire to be a much smaller part of his team’s run game this week (40.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (58.9% in games he has played).
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been among the weakest running backs in football at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging just 2.42 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 9th percentile.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a lowly 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Rushing Yards
43
Rushing Yards
