Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Austin EkelerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Chiefs vs. Chargers
Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 53.5 (-120) after it opened @ 53.5 (-130).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have played in the 4th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack results when facing windier conditions in this game.
- THE BLITZ projects Austin Ekeler to notch 12.5 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
- The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
- The Kansas City Chiefs safeties rank as the 32nd-worst group of safeties in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.
Cons
- The Chargers are a 4-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 35.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
55
Rushing Yards
55
Rushing Yards
