Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyreek HillReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Ravens vs. Dolphins
Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 67.5 (-110) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
- The Dolphins have been the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) since the start of last season with a 70.9% pass rate.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyreek Hill to notch 8.9 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among WRs.
- Tyreek Hill has been heavily involved in his team’s pass game, earning a Target Share of 27.2% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 96th percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
- Tyreek Hill’s possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 72.7% to 65.4%.
- The Miami Dolphins O-line has afforded their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Receiving Yards
73
Receiving Yards
