Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Rams vs. Falcons
Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (+102/-139).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 40.5 (-139) after it opened @ 43.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 4th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Tyler Higbee has run a route on 85.1% of his team’s dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 99th percentile among TEs.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to total 6.4 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The Rams are a big 10.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- The Los Angeles Rams have run the 10th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging just 61.4 plays per game.
- Tyler Higbee’s ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 74.6% to 54.2%.
- Tyler Higbee’s receiving effectiveness has tailed off this year, accumulating a mere 3.93 yards-per-target vs a 7.11 mark last year.
- The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.01 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards
48
Receiving Yards
