Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Steelers vs. Patriots
Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 34.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 34.5 (-115) after it opened @ 36.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 64.1 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to accumulate 5.9 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile among TEs.
- Pat Freiermuth has put up a colossal 31.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 84th percentile among tight ends.
- Pat Freiermuth’s 28.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 83rd percentile for TEs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 5th-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 60.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 10th-least in the league.
- Pat Freiermuth’s receiving reliability have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 80.0% to 57.8%.
- Pat Freiermuth has been among the bottom TEs in football at generating extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.63 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 20th percentile.
- The New England Patriots defense has allowed the least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 24.0) vs. TEs since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards
39
Receiving Yards
